Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112024
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

Recent microwave imagery, including an 0022 UTC ASCAT-B pass, 
indicates that Joyce's circulation is tilted with height, with a 
mid-level center feature displaced about 40 nm north of the 
low-level center.  The scatterometer data also indicated that Joyce 
still has maximum winds of 45 kt, which is also supported by the 
latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes.

Joyce is moving toward the west-northwest (300/10 kt) to the south 
of a narrow subtropical ridge.  Deep-layer troughing is forecast to 
amplify over the central Atlantic during the next few days, eroding 
the ridge and causing Joyce to gradually turn toward the northwest 
and north and slow down to a crawl by this time on Monday.  Because 
several of the regional hurricane models appear to keep Joyce too 
strong in the coming days (more on that below) and show recurvature 
with acceleration, the NHC track forecast more closely follows the 
global models and is a blend of the previous forecast with the GFEX 
consensus.

UW-CIMSS analyses and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that Joyce is 
being affected by moderate-to-strong southerly shear, which is 
reflected by the satellite presentation.  This shear is not 
expected to abate during the next few days, and the storm will also 
be moving into a gradually drier and subsident environment.  
Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in 
strength during the next 24 hours, followed by gradual weakening 
thereafter.  Joyce is likely to lose its organized convection 
and become a remnant low by day 3, if not sooner.  The remnant low 
should degenerate into a trough by day 4 or 5 and will likely be 
absorbed by a larger weather system moving across the eastern 
Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 18.9N  44.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  28/1200Z 19.3N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  29/0000Z 19.7N  47.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  29/1200Z 20.3N  48.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  30/0000Z 21.0N  49.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  30/1200Z 21.6N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  01/0000Z 22.0N  49.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  02/0000Z 22.4N  49.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg