Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024

Periodic bursts of convection have been growing and fading in the 
tropical depression this evening.  Earlier microwave imagery from 
SSMIS showed a fragmented curved band wrapping around the northern 
and western portion of the circulation.  Subjective estimates from 
TAFB and SAB were T-2.5/35 kt and T-1.5/25 kt respectively and based 
on a blend of these, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 285/15 kt along the 
southern side of a mid-level ridge centered over the northeastern 
Atlantic.  This motion should continue for the next day or so until 
the forward speed decreases when the ridge is eroded by an 
amplifying mid-level trough.  By the end of the forecast period, the 
system should begin to turn northward toward a break in the ridge.  
Beyond 72 h, there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance 
due to the models varying the timing of the turn to the north.  The 
latest track forecast is similar to the previous prediction, and 
lies near the various consensus aids.  

Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual 
strengthening for the next couple of days.  Afterwards  The 
depression is forecast to move into a drier air mass and it could 
experience moderate wind shear and possible dry air intrusions.  The 
long range intensity forecast is also rather uncertain and few 
changes have been made to the new NHC intensity forecast, which lies 
near HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 16.5N  31.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  12/1200Z 17.1N  33.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  13/0000Z 18.1N  35.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  13/1200Z 18.9N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  14/0000Z 19.3N  39.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  14/1200Z 19.6N  41.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  15/0000Z 19.9N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  16/0000Z 20.5N  44.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 21.3N  46.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci