Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Beryl has become better 
organized, with the formation of a cold curved convective band near 
the center and over the western semicircle.  However, AMSR-2 
microwave data near 04Z suggested that the center of this convective 
curvature may have been displaced a little west of the low-level 
center.  Based on the various subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is increased to a 
possibly conservative 45 kt.  The cyclone currently has good 
anticyclonic outflow, especially in the western semicircle.

The initial motion is 280/18 kt.  Beryl is on the south side of a 
strong subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the cyclone 
quickly westward or west-northwestward toward and through the 
Windward Islands during the next 2-3 days. After that time, there is 
some divergence in the track guidance as Beryl approaches a weakness 
in the subtropical ridge near and east of Florida.  The GFS-based 
guidance calls for the storm to continue west- northwestward, while 
the ECMWF and UKMET models show a more westward motion. The 
consensus models lean more toward a west-northwestward motion, and 
the official forecast follows this guidance.  The new forecast track 
has only minor changes from the previous track.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the western tropical 
Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean Sea are abnormally favorable for 
strengthening, and the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS 
model are showing a significant chance of rapid intensification. The 
new intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to become a 
hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands, and it now calls for 
a peak intensity of 95 kt in 60-72 h.  This peak could be 
conservative, as several of the intensity guidance models forecast 
Beryl to become a major hurricane.  After 72 h, the storm is 
expected to encounter increasing westerly shear, which should cause 
some weakening.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane 
when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, 
bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and 
dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Barbados.  Additional
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches, and possibly Warnings, will
likely be required for portions of the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands later today.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system.  Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z  9.8N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  29/1800Z 10.3N  48.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  30/0600Z 11.0N  51.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  30/1800Z 11.6N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  01/0600Z 12.4N  58.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
60H  01/1800Z 13.3N  62.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  02/0600Z 14.4N  65.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  03/0600Z 16.8N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 19.0N  79.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven