Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026

Fay's convection has redeveloped once again. Since the last 
advisory, an area of deep convection located just south of the 
storm's low-level center has grown in size, with cloud-top 
temperatures nearing -80-�C at times. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimate from TAFB rated Fay at 1.5/25 kt, while objective 
analysis from UW-CIMSS estimates the storm's strength between 29-36 
kt. Given Fay's pulsating cycles of convection, the initial 
intensity was held steady at 30 kt, with the caveat that brief 
periods of slightly stronger max winds are entirely possible.

Initial motion remains slow at 170/3 kt. However, Fay is expected to 
gain forward speed soon as it escapes the influence of the Atlantic 
subtropical high and is picked up by the prevailing easterlies early 
next week. This will cause a turn to the southwest and then west. 
The latest track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous 
advisory, reflecting only a slight rightward shift to blend better 
with HCCA guidance.

As long as Fay remains in an environment characterized by warm SSTs, 
its cycles of pulsating convection are expected to continue. It was 
anticipated that strong vertical wind shear would work to break 
apart Fay's circulation, but the storm has proven resilient. Global 
forecast models still suggest that convection will completely 
dissipate by the middle of next week at the latest, before Fay opens 
up into a trough shortly thereafter. Little was changed in the 
latest intensity forecast. Fay is expected to waver right around 
tropical depression or even weak tropical storm strength as 
convection pulsates, before eventually dissipating for good.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 29.2N  43.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  27/1800Z 28.9N  43.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
24H  28/0600Z 27.9N  43.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
36H  28/1800Z 26.5N  44.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  29/0600Z 25.2N  45.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  29/1800Z 24.3N  46.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  30/0600Z 23.6N  48.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen