Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Kirk continues to show the ill effects of increasing southwesterly 
shear. Earlier scatterometer data and recent satellite images 
suggest the hurricane is vertically tilted, with the low-level 
center displaced to the southwest of the mid-level circulation. The 
eye feature that was evident earlier today has filled, and satellite 
intensity estimates are decreasing. Kirk's initial intensity is 
estimated to be 90 kt, in best agreement with a T5.0 Dvorak Current 
Intensity estimate from TAFB and recent UW-CIMSS D-MINT and D-PRINT 
estimates. The wind radii of Kirk were made slightly larger based 
on partial data from a 0014 UTC ASCAT-C overpass.

Kirk is expected to continue weakening during the next several days 
due to the negative influences of increasing vertical wind shear, 
decreasing SSTs, and a progressively drier mid-level environment. 
However, the expansive wind field of Kirk should remain large while 
the cyclone acquires frontal characteristics and transitions to an 
extratropical cyclone by 48 h. It is possible that the hostile 
conditions could cause Kirk to lose organized convection and become 
post-tropical even sooner than forecast. The updated NHC intensity 
forecast was adjusted downward to follow the latest HCCA and IVCN 
consensus trends. 

The hurricane is moving north-northeastward (015/20 kt) within the 
flow between an eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge and a deep-layer 
trough to the west of Kirk. The various track models agree that Kirk 
will continue accelerating deeper into the mid-latitudes while 
turning northeastward and east-northwestward over the next few days. 
The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, showing 
the center of Kirk passing north of the Azores Monday night into 
Tuesday as an extratropical cyclone and moving over western Europe 
during the middle of the week.   

Large swells from Kirk are propagating far away from the hurricane 
and bringing an increased risk of dangerous surf and rip currents to 
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, 
Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are 
expected to spread toward the Azores on Monday. For more information 
on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 33.5N  49.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  06/1800Z 36.2N  47.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
24H  07/0600Z 39.6N  42.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  07/1800Z 42.2N  36.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  08/0600Z 43.4N  29.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  08/1800Z 43.9N  20.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  09/0600Z 45.5N  10.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  10/0600Z 51.5N   7.5E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart