Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Beryl is nearing landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. 
After unexpectedly intensifying some last night against continued 
shear, Beryl has plateaued or filled a bit. The last few fixes from 
the Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission indicated the pressure 
rose 9 mb while the peak 700-mb wind in the final NE leg out of 
Beryl were down to 102 kt with lower SFMR values. In addition, the 
aircraft was no longer reporting an eyewall and the presentation of 
Beryl's inner core from radar out of Cancun, Mexico has become more 
degraded. On satellite, the hurricane has also become more 
amorphous, with a lack of an eye signature on infrared imagery, and 
evidence of southerly shear continuing to undercut its outflow. The 
initial intensity this advisory was adjusted to 95 kt, which is 
still higher than the satellite intensity estimates, out of respect 
of the earlier recon data.

The hurricane appears to now be moving more west-northwestward this 
morning, estimated at 285/13 kt. Beryl should maintain this 
west-northwest heading as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula today and 
emerges over the Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Thereafter, the 
subtropical ridge north of Beryl that has been steering it for many 
days now will become eroded in the western Gulf of Mexico from a 
long-wave trough located over the Central U.S. In addition, an 
upper-level low seen retrograding westward in the Gulf of Mexico 
could also impart more poleward steering in the western Gulf of 
Mexico. How sharply Beryl turns poleward from 36-72 h will likely 
depend on the storm's vertical depth, with a more vertically deep 
system more likely to feel the ridge weakness and upper-level flow. 
In fact, that scenario has been highlighted by the last few cycles 
of the ECMWF ensembles which show stronger solutions on the north 
side of the track envelope. The overall guidance this cycle has also 
made a notable shift northward and is a bit slower than earlier, and 
the NHC forecast track has been shifted in that direction, quite 
close to the consensus aid TVCN. However, it is not quite as far 
north as the latest ECMWF or GFS tracks, and further adjustments in 
that direction may be necessary later today.

The intensity forecast for the next 24 hours is straightforward, as 
the small core of Beryl should quickly weaken over the Yucatan after 
it moves inland, likely into a tropical storm before it emerges over 
the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is after this period where the 
intensity forecast becomes more tricky. It will likely take a bit of 
time for Beryl's convective structure to recover in the Gulf of 
Mexico, and initially there will still be some residual southerly 
shear. However, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows 
shear dropping under 10 kt after 48 hours, while the storm traverses 
29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Such an environment should favor 
strengthening, and the raw model output from the GFS and ECMWF 
suggests significant deepening as Beryl approaches the coastline of 
northeastern Mexico and south Texas. Somewhat surprisingly, the 
hurricane-regional models are more subdued and suggest less 
intensification this cycle, but these models have been oscillating 
between stronger and weaker solutions. The latest NHC intensity 
forecast will show a bit more intensification than the prior 
advisory, which is on the high end of the intensity guidance, but 
more in line with the expected favorable environment as Beryl 
approaches landfall.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is 
around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the 
largest impacts will be. However, watches for portions of 
northeastern Mexico and South Texas will likely be required later 
today.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall 
are beginning to occur across the Yucatan Peninsula within the 
hurricane warning area.  Residents there should shelter in place 
through the passage of these life-threatening conditions today. 

2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
late this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast.  Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued later today.

3. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions
beginning late today and continuing through the weekend across much
of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 20.1N  86.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  05/1800Z 20.7N  88.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
24H  06/0600Z 21.7N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H  06/1800Z 22.9N  93.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  07/0600Z 23.8N  94.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  07/1800Z 24.7N  96.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  08/0600Z 26.0N  97.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  09/0600Z 28.0N  98.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/0600Z 30.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin