Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Kirk is gradually succumbing to the effects of increasing vertical 
wind shear.  Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the eye is 
becoming more ragged and cloud-filled, and the southwestern quadrant 
is wrapping in more dry air.  Dvorak estimates have decreased this 
cycle and the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt, closest to the 
TAFB estimate of 102 kt.

The hurricane is moving northward at 17 kt in the flow between a 
deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a subtropical ridge 
centered over the eastern Atlantic.  Model guidance remains tightly 
clustered, and very few changes have been made to the latest 
official track forecast which lie close to the various consensus 
aids.  Kirk is expected to move north of the Azores on Monday and 
move over western Europe Tuesday evening or Wednesday.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to become less 
conducive in the coming days.  Vertical wind shear should become 
quite strong later Sunday, and Kirk is expected to cross the 26 
degree C isotherm Sunday evening.  Global models predict Kirk to 
become an extratropical cyclone on Tuesday and to then be absorbed 
into a larger extratropical system later this week over northern 
Europe.  The latest NHC intensity forecast now reflects these 
changes.

Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from 
the hurricane. These large swells have increased the risk of 
dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, 
and the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and portions of the U.S. East 
Coast. By Sunday, swells are expected to spread northward along the 
eastern seaboard and reach the Azores by Monday. For more 
information on this hazard, see products issued by your local 
weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 31.3N  49.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  06/1200Z 34.0N  48.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  07/0000Z 37.6N  44.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  07/1200Z 40.7N  39.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  08/0000Z 42.8N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  08/1200Z 43.7N  24.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  09/0000Z 44.1N  15.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  10/0000Z 49.5N   3.7E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci