Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024

Leslie appears to have made a bit of a comeback today.  A couple of 
fortuitous microwave images from the past few hours show a closed 
eyewall.  The latest subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and 
SAB range from 55-77 kt, and recent objective estimates range from 
65-74 kt.  The microwave passes, the objective intensity estimates, 
and the TAFB current intensity number all suggest that Leslie is a 
hurricane.  Therefore, the initial intensity is bumped back up to 
65 kt.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 305/12.  A gradual 
turn to the north is expected in a day or two as Leslie rounds the 
southwestern and western side of a subtropical ridge.  After that, 
as Leslie gains latitude late this week, the cyclone will 
increasingly come under the influence of the mid-latitude 
westerlies, causing a turn toward the northeast.  Very minor changes 
have been made to the official track forecast, which lies near the 
various consensus guidance.

Leslie is forecast to remain in an environment of very weak vertical 
wind shear for another 24-36 h.  Given the closed eyewall observed 
on recent microwave images, Leslie may be able to prevent dry 
environmental air from entraining into its inner-core during that 
time.  Leslie will be traveling over Kirk's cold wake over the next 
day or so, which will limit the instability.  The hurricane should 
remain fairly steady during this time, and the NHC forecast is near 
the high end of the intensity guidance during the first 24 h.  By 36 
h, models show Leslie running into a wall of strong northerly wind 
shear, which is forecast to cause Leslie to decouple and degenerate 
to a post-tropical cyclone by this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 20.0N  46.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  09/0600Z 21.0N  47.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  09/1800Z 22.1N  48.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  10/0600Z 23.0N  49.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  10/1800Z 24.0N  50.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  11/0600Z 25.5N  49.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  11/1800Z 27.4N  48.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  12/1800Z 31.5N  42.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  13/1800Z 34.6N  34.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen