Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Kirk continues to have a tight inner core, with deep convection 
wrapping around the center. The eye has continued to become more 
cloud filled, as shear increases over the system. The latest 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have held 
mostly steady with this cycle, and the initial intensity is held at 
105 kt.

Kirk continues to move northward and increase forward speed with an 
estimated motion of (005/17 kt) between a trough located over the 
west-central Atlantic and a subtropical ridge in the east Atlantic.  
Model track guidance remains tightly clustered, although there has 
been a slight shift southward as the system transitions and becomes 
post-tropical. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk 
passing just to the north of the Azores on Monday as an 
extratropical cyclone, and then moving across the northeastern 
Atlantic and over western Europe by the middle of next week. The 
official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous 
advisory, with a slight nudge southward towards the end of the 
period following the consensus model trends.

Wind shear has started to increase over Kirk this afternoon, but the 
inner core has been able to remain intact. However, the environment 
will only continue to become more hostile as wind shear continues to 
increase, with drier mid-level air, and cooler sea surface 
temperatures. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early 
next week. The system should lose tropical characteristics and 
transition to a strong extratropical cyclone around 60 h. The 
updated NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one in the near 
term, with a slightly faster rate of weakening in agreement with the 
latest HCCA and simple consensus aids.

Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from
the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of
dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda,
and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S.
East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the
Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products
issued by your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 29.6N  50.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  06/0600Z 32.1N  49.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  06/1800Z 35.8N  47.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  07/0600Z 39.2N  42.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  07/1800Z 42.0N  36.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  08/0600Z 43.5N  29.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  08/1800Z 44.3N  19.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  09/1800Z 47.7N   .5W    45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1800Z 55.8N  14.9E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly