Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

The inner core of Kirk has become a little less pronounced and 
ragged on satellite imagery, with the eye becoming more cloud 
filled. Shear is starting to increase over the system with some 
drier air intrusions becoming evident. The latest subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates have come down with this 
cycle, and the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt.

Kirk continues to turn more northward (355/14 kt) within the flow 
between a shortwave trough over the west-central Atlantic and a 
subtropical ridge to the east Atlantic  Model guidance is in fairly 
good agreement that Kirk should keep turning to the northeast and 
east-northeast through early next week and increasing forward 
motion. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk passing to 
the north of the Azores on Monday as an extratropical cyclone, and 
then moving across the northeastern Atlantic and over western Europe 
by the middle of next week. The official NHC track forecast is very 
similar to the previous advisory.

The hurricane is getting ready to move into a hostile environment 
with increasing shear and drier air. The system will also be 
traversing cooler sea surface temperatures throughout the forecast 
period. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early next 
week. The system should lose tropical characteristics and 
transition to a strong extratropical cyclone around 60 h, which is 
supported by the global model fields and simulated satellite 
imagery. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the previous in 
the near term, with a slightly faster rate of weakening beyond 60 h 
in agreement with the latest HCCA and simple consensus aids.

Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from 
the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of 
dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, 
and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S. 
East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the 
Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products 
issued by your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 27.6N  50.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  06/0000Z 30.1N  50.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  06/1200Z 33.6N  48.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  07/0000Z 37.1N  45.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  07/1200Z 40.4N  40.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  08/0000Z 42.5N  33.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  08/1200Z 43.5N  24.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  09/1200Z 47.2N   5.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1200Z 54.9N   8.2E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly