Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

The eye of Kirk has become ragged and cloud filled during the past 
several hours. The satellite presentation suggests that 
southwesterly shear and intrusions of dry air are negatively 
affecting the hurricane, as a pronounced dry slot is noted on the 
western side of Kirk. As a result of these structural changes, the 
satellite intensity estimates have decreased overnight. Based on a 
blend of the latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates 
from TAFB and SAB with recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates, the 
initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt.

Kirk continues to turn more northward (340/11 kt) within the flow 
between a shortwave trough over the west-central Atlantic and a 
subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane. The track models 
agree that Kirk should keep recurving to the northeast and 
east-northeast through early next week while accelerating within 
strong mid-latitude flow. The NHC forecast track shows the center of 
Kirk passing to the north of the Azores on Monday as an 
extratropical cyclone, and then moving across the northeastern 
Atlantic and over western Europe by the middle of next week. No 
significant changes were made to the updated NHC prediction.

The environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly 
hostile over the coming days, with a marked increase in shear and a 
drier environment surrounding the hurricane while it moves over 
progressively cooler waters. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast 
through early next week. Kirk should lose tropical characteristics 
and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone between 60-72 h, 
which is supported by the global model fields and simulated 
satellite imagery. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a 
slightly faster rate of weakening, close to or slightly above the 
latest HCCA aid. However, note that the wind field of the cyclone is 
forecast to remain quite large through the 5-day forecast period. 

Large and powerful Kirk is producing ocean swells that are 
propagating far away from the hurricane. These large swells will 
likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across 
the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles beginning 
later today, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the 
Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on 
this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 26.2N  50.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
12H  05/1800Z 28.4N  50.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
24H  06/0600Z 31.9N  49.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  06/1800Z 35.7N  46.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  07/0600Z 39.2N  42.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  07/1800Z 42.0N  36.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  08/0600Z 43.4N  28.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  09/0600Z 45.5N  10.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/0600Z 52.0N   4.5E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart