Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

Microwave images indicate that Kirk is going through another eyewall
replacement cycle.  The inner eyewall is still closed while a larger
second eyewall wraps about 75 percent of the way around the eye and
inner eyewall.  The satellite intensity estimates have held mostly
steady, and therefore, the initial intensity remains 115 kt.
Hurricanes that go through these eyewall replacement cycles often
get larger, and Kirk appears to be doing the same.  The 34- and
50-kt wind radii have been expanded a little on the system's east
side based on a partial ASCAT-B pass.

Kirk is moving northwestward at 11 kt.  A turn to the north is
expected on Saturday when Kirk reaches the western periphery of the
ridge, followed by a much faster northeastward and
east-northeastward motion Sunday and early next week when Kirk moves
in the strong mid-latitude flow.  This track should take the core of
the system to the north of the Azores on Monday and then across
portions of western Europe by the middle of next week,  Models are
in good agreement, and no significant changes were made to the
previous track forecast.

Fluctuations in intensity are likely in the short term, however, a
pronounced increase in shear, intrusions of drier air, and
progressively cooler waters should cause steady weakening beginning
on Saturday.  Kirk is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by
day 3 when it is forecast to be over water temperatures in low 20's
C and embedded in the strong mid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC
intensity forecast follows the trend in the model guidance, and is
in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its
strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean
swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells
will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles
through Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and
the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more
information on this hazard, see products issued by your local
weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 25.0N  49.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  05/1200Z 26.9N  50.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  06/0000Z 30.2N  49.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  06/1200Z 33.9N  48.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  07/0000Z 37.7N  44.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
60H  07/1200Z 40.9N  39.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  08/0000Z 43.2N  32.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  09/0000Z 45.4N  14.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/0000Z 50.6N   1.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi