Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024

Leslie's convective organization continues to become a little less 
organized this afternoon, although deep convection has persisted 
over the center with cloud tops near -80C. A recent AMSR2 microwave 
pass shows that the inner core has deteriorated from imagery earlier 
today. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range from 60 to 75 
kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this 
advisory is set to 70 kt.

The system is moving northwestward, or 315/12 kt. The hurricane is 
rounding the edge of a subtropical ridge over the central/east 
Atlantic. The system should continue to move northwestward with a 
gradual turn more north-northwestward then northward by the end of 
the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is slightly faster than 
the previous forecast and was adjusted slightly to the right towards 
the latest consensus aids.

Leslie will remain in a marginal environment for the next day or 
two, with warm sea surface temperatures and low to moderate wind 
shear. However, the system is entering a much drier air mass. Beyond 
48 h, shear will also increase as the mid-levels will continue to be 
dry. Intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement with gradual 
then steady weakening throughout the forecast period. The NHC 
intensity forecast follows these weakening trends and lies near the 
model consensus. Model simulated satellite imagery depicts that by 
day 4, the shear and drier air will cause Leslie to lose convection 
and the system is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at 
that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 17.4N  42.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  08/0600Z 18.6N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  08/1800Z 20.2N  45.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  09/0600Z 21.5N  46.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  09/1800Z 22.6N  47.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  10/0600Z 23.3N  48.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  10/1800Z 24.2N  49.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  11/1800Z 26.3N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1800Z 30.0N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly