Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

While westerly shear continues to affect Beryl, the central core of 
the hurricane has made a bit of a comeback this afternoon with the 
eye becoming better defined in Cuban radar data and re-appearing in 
satellite imagery.  Whether this has resulted in any 
re-intensification is unclear, so the initial intensity will be 
held at 120 kt pending the arrival of the next reconnaissance 
aircraft.  The Cuban radar data shows that northern eyewall is 
brushing the southern coast of Jamaica at this time, with hurricane 
conditions occurring mainly on the south side of the island.

The initial motion is now 285/17.  A strong mid-level ridge centered
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next
couple of days or so.  The motion should bring the center near or
just south of Jamaica during the next few hours and south of the 
Cayman Islands tonight.  After that, the system should reach the 
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by 60 h.  Once over the Gulf, Beryl 
should turn northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge 
caused by a large mid-latitude trough over the central United 
States.  There is a bit better agreement in the track guidance this 
cycle, as the GFS has shifted its track a little southward and the 
ECMWF has shifted its track a little northward.  Based on this and 
other guidance, the 96- and 120-h points have been shifted a 
little to the southwest of the previous forecast.  However, there 
is still uncertainty during this part of the forecast, and a 
landfall in Texas cannot yet be ruled out.

Beryl should continue to experience some westerly shear for the 
next 24 h, and the ECMWF forecasts moderate shear to persist until 
the hurricane makes landfall in Yucatan.  This portion of the 
intensity forecast calls for weakening as shown by the guidance.  
However, given that Beryl seems reluctant to weaken, the forecast 
is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.  The cyclone 
should weaken to a tropical storm while crossing Yucatan.  The 
intensity guidance has become less enthusiastic about the potential 
for Beryl to re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico.  However, the 
model forecast upper-level winds seem generally favorable, and 
based on this the intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to 
re-gain hurricane strength over the Gulf. 


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,  
and damaging waves are expected to continue in Jamaica over the next 
several hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. 
Mountainous locations in Jamaica are likely to experience 
destructive wind gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall 
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize 
beginning Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a 
hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect 
for portions of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of 
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in 
the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should 
monitor the progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 17.5N  77.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  04/0600Z 18.1N  80.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  04/1800Z 18.7N  83.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  05/0600Z 19.2N  86.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  05/1800Z 19.9N  89.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
60H  06/0600Z 20.9N  91.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H  06/1800Z 21.9N  93.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  07/1800Z 24.0N  96.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 26.0N  98.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven