Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Westerly shear is having an effect on Beryl this morning, as the eye 
has all but disappeared in satellite imagery and the cloud pattern 
has become ragged and elongated from southwest to northeast.  
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 954 mb.  
However, the Air Force plane measured flight-level winds of 139 kt 
at 700 mb, while the NOAA plane measured 138-kt winds at 750 mb.  
These winds support surface winds of 120-125 kt, and based on this 
the initial intensity is held at 125 kt.

The initial motion is now 285/16.  A strong mid-level ridge centered 
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl 
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next 
couple of days or so.  The motion should bring the center near or 
just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 h and south of the Cayman 
Islands tonight.  After that, the system should reach the Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf 
of Mexico by 60 h.  Once over the Gulf, there remains a sizable 
amount of spread in the track guidance, with the GFS and HWRF 
showing a more northerly motion toward the Texas coast while the 
ECMWF and UKMET show a more westerly motion toward the coast of 
Mexico.  This part of the track forecast lies near the consensus 
models in the middle of the guidance envelope, and overall there are 
no significant changes to the forecast from the previous advisory.

While there is some disagreement in how much shear Beryl will
encounter before reaching Yucatan, the intensity guidance expects
enough shear that it agrees on steady weakening.  The official
forecast follows this and is at the high end of the guidance
envelope.  Beryl should weaken more while over Yucatan, then slowly
re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico in a somewhat more favorable
environment.  The intensity forecast again calls for the cyclone to
regain hurricane strength before it reaches the western Gulf coast,
followed by weakening after landfall.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, 
and damaging waves are expected to begin in Jamaica within the next 
few hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous 
locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind 
gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall 
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are 
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize beginning 
Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane.  
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions 
of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of 
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the 
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should monitor the 
progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 17.1N  76.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
12H  04/0000Z 17.8N  78.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  04/1200Z 18.5N  82.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  05/0000Z 19.0N  85.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  05/1200Z 19.7N  88.2W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
60H  06/0000Z 20.5N  90.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H  06/1200Z 21.5N  92.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  07/1200Z 23.5N  96.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 25.5N  98.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven