Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

Kirk remains a large, powerful hurricane with an impressive 
satellite presentation. The hurricane has a clear, circular 20 n mi- 
wide eye that is surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. 
The latest subjective Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are 
T6.0/115 kt, while the various UW-CIMSS objective estimates are 
around 125-130 kt. A blend of these values supports holding the 
initial intensity at 125 kt. The wind radii of Kirk were made 
slightly larger based on an earlier ASCAT overpass.

A subtropical high to the northeast of Kirk is steering the 
hurricane northwestward (310/9 kt), but a northward turn is expected 
on Saturday while the hurricane moves between the western extent of 
the subtropical ridge and a shortwave trough approaching from the 
west. Then, Kirk is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the 
mid-latitudes on Sunday through early next week, ahead of a 
deep-layer trough moving across the northern Atlantic. The track 
guidance agrees on this recurvature scenario, and the NHC prediction 
is very similar to the previous one with only slight left-of-track 
adjustments to follow the multi-model consensus trends.

Satellite intensity estimates peaked overnight, and there is 
evidence of some restriction of Kirk's upper-level outflow to the 
west of the hurricane in recent satellite images. The shear is 
expected to increase over Kirk during the next few days, along with 
the potential for intrusions of dry air that could disrupt the 
hurricane's convective organization. So while small short-term 
intensity fluctuations are possible, the overall forecast trend is 
for gradual weakening through Saturday, with more steady weakening 
into early next week. As Kirk moves over cooler waters and into a 
more baroclinic environment, it is expected to lose tropical 
characteristics and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone by 
96 h over the northeastern Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast 
closely follows the latest HCCA aid.

Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its 
strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean 
swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells 
will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents 
across the Leeward Islands beginning later today, Bermuda and the 
Greater Antilles by Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic 
Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For 
more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local 
weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 22.3N  48.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
12H  04/1800Z 23.6N  49.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  05/0600Z 25.7N  50.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  05/1800Z 28.7N  50.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  06/0600Z 32.3N  49.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
60H  06/1800Z 35.8N  46.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  07/0600Z 39.8N  42.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  08/0600Z 45.0N  29.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0600Z 47.0N  14.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart