Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
800 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024

Tropical Depression Thirteen has become a little better organized 
since the last advisory, with improving circulation definition and 
convection continuing to curve cyclonically in a banded fashion on 
its western side. However, Dvorak intensity estimates have not 
changed much this afternoon, still at T2.5/35-kt from TAFB and 
T1.5/25-kt from SAB, so the initial intensity will remain 30 kt. 

The depression appears to be moving just south of due west following 
along from previous fixes with a current estimated motion at   260/7 
kt. This motion has resulted in a slight southward track shift from 
the previous forecast but remains close to the consensus aid TVCN. 
This motion should continue over the next day or so guided by a 
steering ridge to the north and enhanced convection along the 
southern semicircle potentially pulling it southward as the 
depression organizes. Track guidance then shows TD13 turning 
west-northwestward after 48 hours and ultimately northwestward 
towards the end of the forecast period as the ridge steering becomes 
more eroded on its western side. The track guidance was very 
similar to the previous cycle, albeit a touch further south in 5 
days, and the latest NHC track has been nudged a bit further south 
towards the end of the forecast. 

The forecast for this cycle shows a somewhat faster intensification 
rate than the prior advisory, with the system now becoming a 
hurricane in 48 hours, and peaking at 80 kt in 72 hours, due to 
decreasing shear and plenty of warm ocean waters and moisture early 
on in the forecast. The intensity guidance then proceeds to show the 
intensity plateauing after 72 hours as the system could encounter 
the edge of Hurricane Kirk's large area of ocean upwelling. Both 
HAFS-A/B show this potentially limiting the intensity in the longer 
term, but the NHC intensity forecast could be conservative if TD13 
ends up tracking further south than forecasted.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 10.5N  29.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  03/0600Z 10.2N  30.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  03/1800Z 10.1N  31.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  04/0600Z 10.2N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  04/1800Z 10.6N  33.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  05/0600Z 11.1N  35.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  05/1800Z 11.8N  36.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  06/1800Z 13.8N  38.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 16.5N  42.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin