Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024

Satellite images show there has been little change with the 
depression this afternoon.  Although deep convection has faded 
some, this is pretty typical at this time of day.  The initial wind 
speed will stay 30 kt, similar to the recent objective and 
subjective Dvorak classifications. 

The depression is still moving 285/16, and little change to the 
motion is expected over the next 36 to 48 hours before its forward 
speed slows in response to the approach of an amplifying 
mid-level trough over the Atlantic.   The big change to note is 
that most of the guidance is significantly slower and now start to 
recurve the system around day 5 (rather than continue westward).  
The new forecast is a lot slower than the previous one and future 
adjustments could be made if later guidance continue this trend 
(continuity prevents a larger change).

Generally low wind shear and warm waters for the first couple of 
days should allow the depression to strengthen during that time.  
Thereafter, an increase in westerly shear and possible dry air 
intrusions could prevent further intensification, but this is still 
a pretty uncertain forecast at long range due to the track 
uncertainty. Most of the models are a bit lower beyond 2 days, and 
the new NHC intensity forecast is nudged downward at long range.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 16.2N  30.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  12/0600Z 17.0N  32.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  12/1800Z 17.8N  35.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  13/0600Z 18.8N  37.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  13/1800Z 19.3N  39.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  14/0600Z 19.6N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  14/1800Z 19.9N  42.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  15/1800Z 20.2N  44.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 20.7N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake