Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

Since becoming a depression earlier this afternoon, deep convection 
has continued to burst with infrared satellite imagery depicting 
cold cloud tops down to -80C. The center of circulation remains on 
the eastern side of the deep convection, but the system is gradually 
becoming better organized with banding features and better vertical 
alignment. Intensity estimates have increased this cycle with 
subjective Dvorak estimates of T2.0/T2.5 from SAB and TAFB, 
respectively. Objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS are around 
34-36 kt as well. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial 
intensity for this advisory is set to 35 kt, and the depression has 
strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical Storm Beryl is one 
of only a few storms in history that have formed over the central or 
eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.

Tropical Storm Beryl is moving westward at 16 kt, steered by a 
strong subtropical ridge to the north. This should keep Beryl moving 
swiftly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days, 
with the model guidance remains tightly clustered as the system 
moves towards the Windward Islands. There is a little more spread in 
the model guidance beyond day 3, when the system nears a weakness in 
the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast lies near the 
consensus aids near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is very 
similar to the previous forecast track. Based on this forecast, the 
system is expected to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night 
and Monday and track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea 
through the middle of next week.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions, atypical for this time of year, 
are fairly favorable for strengthening the next few days with warm 
sea surface temperatures, plenty of moisture, and low vertical wind 
shear. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady 
strengthening and shows the system becoming a hurricane before it 
reaches the Windward Islands. The NHC intensity forecast is very 
similar to the previous advisory. It should be noted that some of 
the model guidance is still quite aggressive and a fair amount are 
even higher than the official forecast. Some hurricane regional 
models and consensus aids show the system becoming a major hurricane 
prior to reaching the Windward Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or
Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds,
and dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for 
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands early 
Saturday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system.  Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z  9.3N  43.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  29/1200Z  9.7N  46.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  30/0000Z 10.4N  49.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  30/1200Z 11.0N  53.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  01/0000Z 11.7N  56.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  01/1200Z 12.5N  60.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  02/0000Z 13.6N  63.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  03/0000Z 16.0N  71.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 17.8N  77.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly