Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

The system remains very broad and the deep convection is still not 
well organized, and data from a partial ASCAT pass suggest that a 
well-defined circulation has not yet formed.  Given the lack of 
increase in organization of the cloud pattern, the current intensity 
is held at 25 kt for this advisory.  The disturbance is expected to 
pass near or over data buoy 41040 soon, which could help better 
assess the status of the system.  

Although the center is not well-defined, the system appears to be 
continuing its fast west-northwestward motion at around 285/20 kt.  
A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the 
potential tropical cyclone for the next 48 hours, which should more 
or less maintain the current heading during that period.  In the 2 
to 3 day time frame, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the U.S. 
east coast should cause the system to turn northward to the north of 
the Greater Antilles.  Later in the forecast period a turn toward 
the north-northeast, ahead of the trough, is anticipated.  The NHC 
forecast track is just a little to the left of the previous one 
during the next 48 hours, and is close to the latest model 
consensus.  It should again be noted that forecast tracks for 
potential tropical cyclones are inherently more uncertain than usual 
because of the greater uncertainty in the initial center position.

The disturbance is currently being affected by some easterly 
vertical wind shear which is probably inhibiting its initial 
development and intensification.  The shear is likely to weaken soon 
and the thermodynamic environment is expected to become more 
conducive over the next few days.  The official forecast calls for 
intensification in general agreement with the intensity model 
consensus.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect.  Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.

3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the 
islands of the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, by 
early Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the 
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 14.1N  50.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  12/1200Z 14.8N  53.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H  13/0000Z 15.6N  58.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H  13/1200Z 16.2N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  14/0000Z 17.4N  63.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  14/1200Z 18.7N  65.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  15/0000Z 20.3N  66.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  16/0000Z 24.5N  67.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 28.5N  65.9W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch