Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Satellite images show the large spinning low pressure area centered 
over the Bay of Campeche, with lots of convective banding noted 
over Yucatan.  While dropsondes from an earlier Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter survey mission showed that the pressure had 
fallen to about 999 mb, there are still no signs of a well-defined 
center, with multiple smaller circulations within the larger gyre.  
Thus, the low remains a potential tropical cyclone for this 
advisory.

The system has been moving northward at about 6 kt.  This general 
motion should continue for a day or so, followed by a
west-northwestward turn due to a mid-level ridge building over the 
northern Gulf Coast, bringing the low near northeastern Mexico 
in a couple of days.  The model guidance is in good agreement on 
this track, and little change was made to the previous forecast, 
with the latest NHC track lying a bit north of the model consensus.

While the low pressure area remains quite broad, a fair number of 
the regional hurricane models are suggestive that low could 
eventually contract in a low-shear, very warm water environment.  
This isn't too difficult to believe as the overall circulation 
looks better organized than earlier today, but will likely take 
some time to strengthen due to the sprawling nature of the 
disturbance.  Model guidance has trended upward since the last 
cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the 
last one.  

It should be noted that regardless of the exact track of the 
low, we expect this system to have a large area of heavy rains, 
moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north 
of the center.  The official wind speed probabilities are likely 
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the 
Texas coast because of the aclimatologically large and asymmetric 
area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system.  The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico
and South Texas.   This rainfall will likely produce considerable 
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. 
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across 
Central America into northeast Mexico.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over
portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port
OG��Connor, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 20.8N  93.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  18/1200Z 21.6N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H  19/0000Z 22.6N  93.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H  19/1200Z 23.2N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H  20/0000Z 23.5N  96.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H  20/1200Z 23.7N  98.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
72H  21/0000Z 23.8N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
96H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake