Hurricane Milton Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a 
sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of 
the center, and the eye open on the south side.  This structure was 
confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission, 
where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest.  The plane 
reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with 
the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb.  
Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level 
winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt.  The highest 
Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and 
105 kt.

Milton's recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at 
about 15 kt.  Track model guidance continues to insist that the 
hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very 
soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this 
evening.  Milton's center is then expected to cross central Florida 
and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic.

Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major 
hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this 
evening.  Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent 
of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the 
northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to 
southwesterly shear.  As a result, significant wind impacts are 
likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south, 
regardless of the exact intensity at landfall.  There will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still 
exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of 
Florida given the size of the storm.

Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already 
beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model 
guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in 
about 36 hours over the western Atlantic.  This is reflected in the 
new NHC forecast.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest 
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the 
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the 
surge will be accompanied by damaging waves.  Water levels will rise 
rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the 
backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as 
the center makes landfall. 

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of 
the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area. 
Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are 
expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of 
the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and 
early Thursday.  Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an 
interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves 
across the central Florida Peninsula. 

3. The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening 
hours across the southern and central portions of the Florida 
Peninsula.  Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior 
room if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area. 

4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday 
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban 
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in 
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the 
overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 26.9N  83.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  10/0600Z 28.0N  81.8W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
24H  10/1800Z 28.9N  79.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER
36H  11/0600Z 29.2N  76.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  11/1800Z 29.3N  73.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  12/0600Z 29.4N  70.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  12/1800Z 29.9N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  13/1800Z 31.2N  61.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/1800Z 33.1N  55.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg