Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Beryl appears to be experiencing the effects of moderate 
northwesterly shear.  The eye has become cloud-filled, and the 
hurricane's cloud pattern is elongated northeast to southwest.  
Still, very deep convection is present in the eyewall and the core  
of the hurricane remains intact.  Data from an earlier  Air Force 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft had maximum flight-level winds of 136 kt 
and a slightly higher minimum central pressure than the previous 
advisory.  Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 125 kt, 
pending data from the next set of reconnaissance aircraft.

The intensity forecast remains rather challenging.  The uncertainty 
starts right away due to noticeable discrepancies in the short-term 
evolution of the upper-level flow in the global models.  The ECMWF 
global model predicts strong westerly flow from an upper-level 
trough that would significantly increase the shear over Beryl in the 
next 24 h and result in rapid weakening.  However, the GFS model 
shows a very different upper-level wind pattern that would result in 
only moderate vertical wind shear near Beryl and thus, less 
weakening.  The official forecast shows a blend of these solutions 
and general weakening through 48 h.  It should be emphasized that 
Beryl is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near 
Jamaica in the next 12 h, the Cayman Islands early on Thursday, and 
the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday.  As Beryl emerges over the warm 
waters of the Gulf Mexico in about 72 h, an upper-level ridge is 
forecast to build closer to the storm, and more numerical model 
guidance is showing restrengthening.  The official forecast now 
shows Beryl becoming a hurricane before making landfall along the 
western coast of the Gulf of Mexico, and lies a bit below the model 
consensus.

The hurricane has continued its rapid pace across the central 
Caribbean at around 285/17 kt.  A strong mid-level ridge centered 
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl 
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next 
couple of days or so.  The core of the hurricane should pass near or 
just south of Jamaica later today, with little change to the 
forecast near Yucatan.  Over the Gulf of Mexico, the storm should 
turn northwestward as a trough moving over the central US weakens 
the ridge over the weekend.  There is still significant uncertainty 
in the long-term track forecast, as numerical models showing 
stronger storms in the Gulf of Mexico are generally on the northern 
side of the guidance envelope and weaker storms on the southern 
side.  The NHC track forecast lies in the middle of the guidance 
envelope, near the multi-model consensus aids and is very similar to 
the previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica beginning 
this afternoon and in the Cayman Islands early on Thursday.  
Residents in these areas should listen to local government and 
emergency management officials for preparedness and/or evacuation 
orders.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall 
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday, where hurricane and
tropical storm watches have been issued.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 16.6N  74.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
12H  03/1800Z 17.3N  76.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  04/0600Z 18.1N  80.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  04/1800Z 18.7N  83.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  05/0600Z 19.4N  86.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
60H  05/1800Z 20.1N  89.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
72H  06/0600Z 21.1N  91.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H  07/0600Z 23.0N  95.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 25.0N  98.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake