Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Leslie's satellite imagery has become a little more ragged as 
southwesterly shear has disrupted the overall convective pattern. 
The deep inner core convection has become a little more broken the 
last few hours. Subjective and objective estimates range from 75 to 
85 kt, with a T4.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Based on these 
satellite estimates, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt.

Leslie is moving northwestward (310/8 kt) while being steered by a 
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue 
to build to the northeast of the system, which should steer the 
hurricane northwestward throughout the forecast period. Models 
continue to be in good agreement, the NHC track forecast is very 
similar to the previous which remains near the latest consensus 
aids.

The hurricane has started to enter a more hostile environment. 
Southwesterly shear has started to increase, with drier mid-levels, 
and upper-level convergence along the forecast path. The latest NHC 
forecast follows the latest model trends with gradual weakening 
beginning on Monday. Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical 
cyclone, it could be more susceptible to these negative factors and 
weaken even faster than the NHC forecast later in the period, as 
suggested by some of the global and hurricane regional models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 14.0N  38.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  07/0600Z 14.9N  39.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
24H  07/1800Z 16.2N  41.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  08/0600Z 17.6N  43.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  08/1800Z 19.0N  44.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  09/0600Z 20.3N  46.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  09/1800Z 21.2N  47.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  10/1800Z 22.5N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 24.1N  51.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly