Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Kirk (AL122024) DATA RELEASED: 10/3/2024 9:00:00 PM UTC

Copy of official data

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

Kirk continues to improve on satellite imagery, with a well-defined 
circular eye. Infrared imagery depicts an inner core with cold tops 
wrapping entirely around the eye, with lightning depicted on GLM 
data in the northern eyewall. A recent GMI microwave pass also 
depicts A tight inner core, and a vertically aligned structure of 
the system. Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB 
remained T5.5/102 kt. for this cycle. However, the UW-CIMMS 
objective estimates and SATCON are a little higher and range from 
110-124 kt Given the improved satellite depiction in recent hours 
and a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this 
advisory is set to 115 kt. Kirk is now a category 4 major hurricane 
on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 315/10 kt.  This motion 
should continue over the next day or so as Kirk moves around the 
edge of a subtropical ridge located over the eastern Atlantic. Kirk 
will begin to curve and turn northeastward this weekend between an 
approaching trough the eastern/central Atlantic and the subtropical 
ridge. Models are tightly clustered and the latest NHC forecast 
track is near the previous.

The system is embedded in a favorable environment with low vertical 
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Additional 
strengthening is forecast over the next 24 h or so. Beyond 36 h, 
wind shear is forecast to increase over the system and gradual 
weakening is likely to occur. However, additional baroclinic energy 
is likely to allow Kirk to maintain hurricane-force winds along with 
a growing tropical-storm-force wind field through the end of the 
forecast period. Global model fields depict the system becoming 
extra-tropical by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is near the 
previous, with a higher peak intensity given the current initial 
intensity.

Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across
the central and western Atlantic.  These swells will likely increase
the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward
Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and
the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 21.1N  46.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  04/0600Z 22.1N  47.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  04/1800Z 23.7N  49.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  05/0600Z 25.7N  50.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  05/1800Z 28.4N  50.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
60H  06/0600Z 31.7N  49.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  06/1800Z 35.2N  46.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  07/1800Z 42.1N  36.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 46.4N  23.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly