Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026

Resilient Fay has strengthened this morning.  Deep convective
curved bands have developed both on the west and east sides of the
cyclone, and a small cold cloud top deep burst of convection is
persisting over the surface center.  Based on the improved cloud
pattern and an increase in the Dvorak satellite intensity
estimated from TAFB, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.

Fay remains over warm ocean waters and a favorable upper-level wind
environment.  Only a relatively stable, dry surrounding atmosphere
is preventing Fay from strengthening significantly.  By the weekend,
deep-layer shear is expected to increase, which should induce a
weakening trend.  Subsequently, Fay is forecast to degenerate into 
a remnant low.

Fay's initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/5 kt.
This general motion should continue with a slight reduction
in forward speed through dissipation on Sunday.  The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the
skilled HFIP HCCA and GDMI TC ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 29.8N  41.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 29.8N  42.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 29.7N  42.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 29.6N  43.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 29.5N  45.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  27/0000Z 29.5N  46.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts