Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Leslie has continued to produce a deep ring of convection around the 
center, with a faint eye becoming more apparent on infrared and 
visible satellite imagery, and GLM lightning data depicts lightning 
occuring in the northern eyewall. These satellite trends all 
depict Leslie is still strengthening within a marginally favorable 
environment. Dvorak subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates have continued to increase this cycle and range from 70 
to 85 kt.  Based on these satellite data, the initial intensity 
is raised to 80 kt.

Leslie is moving northwestward (310/8 kt) while being steered by a 
subtropical ridge centered to the northeast of the hurricane. The 
ridge will remain anchored over the eastern Atlantic and continue to 
steer the hurricane northwestward throughout the forecast period. As 
a result, model guidance is fairly tightly clustered with only a few 
slight leftward adjustments made towards the end of the forecast 
period, closer to the HCCA corrected consensus.

The hurricane has been able to maintain its core even though wind 
shear is gradually increasing over the system. Leslie has about 12 
more hours before it begins to move into an increasingly unfavorable 
environment. In the near term the forecast allows for some 
additional strengthening, especially if Leslie's eye can clear. 
However, drier mid-level air is nearby as is depicted on water vapor 
imagery, as well as a less difluent upper-level pattern, and 
southwesterly shear will persist. The latest NHC forecast follows 
the latest model trends with gradual weakening beginning on Monday. 
Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical cyclone, it could be 
more susceptible to these negative factors and weaken even faster 
than the NHC forecast later in the period, as suggested by some of 
the global and hurricane regional models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 13.3N  37.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 14.2N  39.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 15.4N  40.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 16.6N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 17.9N  43.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  09/0000Z 19.2N  45.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  09/1200Z 20.4N  47.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  10/1200Z 22.2N  49.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 24.2N  51.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly