Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

Gordon's center remains displaced at least 120 n mi to the west of a 
ragged-looking area of deep convection.  Using a shear pattern from 
satellite imagery, Dvorak data T-numbers correspond to an intensity 
below tropical storm strength.  However,scatterometer data, which 
did not completely sample the circulation, suggest that the system's 
intensity may still be close to to 35 kt, so Gordon is kept at 
tropical storm status for this advisory.

The cyclone continues to move west-southwestward, with a current 
motion estimate of 250/8 kt.  Gordon is being steered by a mid-level 
high pressure system to its north and northwest.  This high is 
forecast to gradually weaken which should result in a slowing of the 
cyclone's forward speed over the next few days.  In 3-4 days, the 
high is predicted to shift farther west, resulting in a turn toward 
the north.  By late in the forecast period, a broad trough becomes 
established to the west-northwest of Gordon.  This is expected to 
cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the north-northeast.  The 
official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is 
reasonably close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus.

Gordon has been experiencing strong westerly vertical wind shear 
for the past couple of days, associated with a large upper-level 
trough over the eastern Atlantic.  The global models show this 
trough moving eastward, away from the tropical cyclone.  As a 
result, there may be some relaxation of the shear over the next 
several days.  Although Gordon has been disrupted so much by the 
shear that it could degenerate into a remnant low soon, the more 
conducive upper-level environment predicted by the dynamical 
guidance could result in some restrengthening.  This is also 
indicated by the latest SHIPS model output.  As a compromise, the 
official forecast shows little change in strength through the 
forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 19.2N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  16/0000Z 19.1N  46.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  16/1200Z 19.0N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  17/0000Z 18.9N  49.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  17/1200Z 18.9N  49.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  18/0000Z 19.0N  50.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  18/1200Z 19.4N  50.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  19/1200Z 21.0N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 23.5N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch