Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

The center of Leslie was embedded within a cold, asymmetric central
dense overcast for much of the overnight hours. But recently,
geostationary satellite images indicate an eye feature is trying to
emerge, with a warm spot in infrared imagery surrounded by a ring of
deep, cold convection. Based on these satellite trends, the initial
intensity is raised to 75 kt, in best agreement with T4.5 Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Leslie is moving northwestward (310/9 kt) while being steered by a
subtropical ridge centered to the north and northeast of the
hurricane. This ridge is expected to build eastward over the eastern
Atlantic and remain the primary steering feature for much of the
5-day forecast period. As a result, the NHC forecast shows a
continued northwestward motion, remaining near the center of the
track guidance envelope. Only small right-of-track adjustments
were made to the previous forecast, mainly beyond 48 h.

Some near-term intensity fluctuations are possible today, depending
on whether Leslie is able to fully clear out an eye this morning.
But overall, the environmental conditions are still forecast to
become less favorable for further development in the coming days.
Drier mid-level air, a more convergent upper-level environment, and
increasing southwesterly shear should induce at least a gradual
weakening trend in the coming days, and this is reflected in the
latest NHC prediction. Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical
cyclone, it could be more susceptible to these negative factors and
weaken even faster than the NHC forecast later in the period, as 
suggested by the regional hurricane models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 12.9N  37.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  06/1800Z 13.7N  38.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
24H  07/0600Z 14.9N  39.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  07/1800Z 16.2N  41.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  08/0600Z 17.5N  43.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  08/1800Z 18.9N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  09/0600Z 20.2N  46.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  10/0600Z 22.2N  49.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 24.0N  50.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart