Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

After going through a period of rapid intensification, Kirk appears
to have stopped intensifying, at least temporarily, and there are
signs in satellite imagery that a dry slot has wrapped into the
circulation.  Subjective final-T numbers have decreased slightly
from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is set at 105 kt, near
the CI numbers.

Kirk continues to move northwestward (315/9 kt), which should 
continue for the next 36 hours while the hurricane moves along the 
southwestern periphery of the subtropical high.  After 36 hours, 
Kirk is forecast to recurve between the high and a deep-layer trough 
over the western/central Atlantic, eventually moving northeastward 
by late Sunday or Monday.  There is lower-than-normal spread among 
the track guidance, including the global model ensembles, and 
overall the new NHC track prediction is not changed much from the 
previous advisory.

The hurricane is expected to move through a moist, low-shear 
environment for the next 36 hours or so, with sea surface 
temperatures actually warming by a degree or two up to 30 deg 
Celsius.  If Kirk can avoid further intrusions of dry air into the 
eye, then the environment should be able to support strengthening to 
category 4 strength.  The NHC intensity forecast is near the top end 
of the guidance during the short term.  After 36 hours, increasing 
deep-layer shear is likely to induce a gradual weakening trend, but 
interaction with a baroclinic energy source should help the storm to 
maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast 
period.  Based on thickness fields from the global models, Kirk is 
now forecast to be extratropical by day 5.

Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across 
the central and western Atlantic.  These swells will likely increase 
the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward 
Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and 
the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 20.0N  45.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  03/1800Z 20.8N  46.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  04/0600Z 22.1N  47.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  04/1800Z 23.5N  49.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  05/0600Z 25.4N  50.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
60H  05/1800Z 28.0N  50.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  06/0600Z 31.3N  49.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  07/0600Z 38.5N  42.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 44.7N  30.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg