Tropical Depression Francine Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Frances has continued to weaken this morning as the center moves 
across central Mississippi. Surface observations indicate that the 
central pressure has risen to near 996 mb, with winds of 25-30 kt 
observed about 80 n mi east and northeast of the center.  Based on 
these data, the initial intensity is decreased to 30 kt.  The 
surface observations and satellite imagery also suggest that 
Francine is merging with a frontal zone, and it is expected to 
become a post-tropical low later today or tonight. It should be 
noted that while the forecast shows the surface cyclone dissipating 
by 48 h, the remnants of the circulation above the surface will 
persist beyond that time and continue the heavy rainfall threat.

The initial motion is now 360/12.  A continued northward to 
north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is 
expected before dissipation, bringing Francine or its remnants 
across northern Mississippi into northeastern Arkansas. 

This is the last Tropical Cyclone Discussion issued by the 
National Hurricane Center on this system.  Future information on 
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header 
TCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at 
www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml 
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Elevated water levels and high surf along portions of the 
Louisiana and Mississippi coasts should subside today. Until this 
occurs, residents in the affected area should continue to follow 
advice given by local officials.

2. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of 
flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions 
of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Southeast. 
Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible through tonight 
over portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, expanding into 
Georgia and middle Tennessee Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 32.5N  90.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
12H  13/0000Z 34.3N  90.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  13/1200Z 35.3N  90.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  14/0000Z 35.9N  90.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven