Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Kirk has undergone an impressive period of rapid intensification 
over the past 24 h.  Recent satellite imagery showed a ragged eye, 
with multiple deep bursts of convection rotating in the eyewall.  
Overshooting tops are obscuring the eye now, but it would not be 
surprising if it clears again soon.  As noted in the special 
advisory, the subjective Dvorak satellite estimates have climbed but 
were constrained.  The initial intensity is nudged up to 110 kt for 
this advisory, closest to the T6.0 data-T number from SAB.  The 
hurricane has strengthened 55 kt since 0300 UTC last night, which 
means Kirk lands at a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The hurricane continues to be steered by the subtropical ridge to 
the northwest at an estimated 310/9 kt.  Little has changed in the 
track forecast reasoning.  On Friday night or Saturday, Kirk is 
expected to gradually turn north-northwestward to northward and 
accelerate in the flow between a deep-layer trough and the weakening 
subtropical ridge.  Later in the weekend, Kirk is expected to 
continue accelerating north-northeastward to northeastward.  Few 
changes have been made to the latest official track forecast, which 
lie close to various consensus aids.

Given Kirk's recent rapid intensification, conditions appear 
conducive for further strengthening during the next day or so.  The 
short-term forecast is therefore above all of the guidance now, 
peaking at 130 kt in 24 h.  By Friday, the vertical wind shear is 
expected to increase and gradually weaken Kirk through the remainder 
of the forecast period.  As the hurricane moves more poleward, 
Kirk's tropical-storm-force winds are predicted to grow and send 
large swell westward to the northern Leeward Islands and the Bahamas 
over the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 19.5N  44.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
12H  03/1200Z 20.4N  45.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  04/0000Z 21.7N  47.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
36H  04/1200Z 23.1N  48.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
48H  05/0000Z 24.8N  49.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
60H  05/1200Z 27.0N  50.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  06/0000Z 30.0N  50.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  07/0000Z 36.8N  45.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 43.9N  35.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci