Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

Beryl remains an impressive category 5 hurricane this morning.  
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined eye, expanding outflow, 
and a prominent outer band.  Overnight NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft data showed the minimum central pressure falling to about 
935 mb, and the Tail Doppler Radar measured 170 kt of wind at about 
500 m.  This supports the initial intensity of 145 kt for this 
advisory.

The hurricane is moving quickly to west-northwest at an estimated 
290/19 kt.  A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern 
United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to 
westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next 
few days.  The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the 
north and lies closest to the corrected consensus aid.  There is 
still increased uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 72 h, with 
the model guidance showing a large spread as Beryl emerges over the 
Gulf of Mexico.

Beryl's intensity forecast is also rather uncertain.  Model guidance 
all indicates that the hurricane will begin to weaken later today 
as Beryl encounters moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear.   Later 
on, factors such as the possible interaction with the Jamaican 
elevated terrain, dry air intrusions, and the structure of the 
vertical wind shear will all play a role in the rate of weakening.  
The models show quite a wide range of solutions, with guidance 
between a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane while it nears 
the Yucatan Peninsula.  The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the 
aids, showing Beryl as a major hurricane near Jamaica, reaching 
Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72 h before emerging as a tropical 
storm over the Gulf of Mexico. This is quite an uncertain forecast 
beyond a couple of days due to the aforementioned factors.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on
Wednesday.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south
coast of Hispaniola, and a Hurricane Watch is now in effect for all 
of the Cayman Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica
on Wednesday.

3. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. 
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today 
or Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 14.6N  66.9W  145 KT 165 MPH
12H  02/1800Z 15.5N  69.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
24H  03/0600Z 16.5N  73.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  03/1800Z 17.4N  76.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  04/0600Z 18.2N  80.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  04/1800Z 18.7N  83.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  05/0600Z 19.3N  86.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  06/0600Z 21.2N  91.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 23.0N  95.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake