Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Leslie continues to produce deep convection this afternoon. Although 
the convective pattern depicts some southwesterly shear  
starting to impact the system. Subjective and objective Dvorak 
satellite intensity estimates range from 55-70 kt. Given the deep 
convection over the center still, the initial intensity is held at 
70 kt for this advisory, although that could be a little generous.

The hurricane continues to move slowly west-northwestward at 300/7 
kt, steered along the southwestern portion of a mid-level 
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue 
to steer Leslie the next several days with a turn more 
northwestward, with an increase in forward speed the next several 
days. Model track guidance still remains fairly tightly clustered 
and the NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one.

Leslie may be able to fend off the shear over the next 12 hours or 
so, however by Sunday, the system will start to move into increasing 
wind shear and mid-level dry air. The NHC forecast track also takes 
Leslie over Kirk's cold wake. There continues to be some model 
differences on how significantly, and quickly weakening will occur. 
The NHC forecast follows the latest consensus aids downward trends, 
and is slightly lower than the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 11.6N  36.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  06/0600Z 12.3N  36.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  06/1800Z 13.4N  38.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  07/0600Z 14.7N  39.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  07/1800Z 16.0N  41.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  08/0600Z 17.3N  43.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  08/1800Z 18.7N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  09/1800Z 21.0N  48.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 22.9N  51.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly