Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Data from a NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight has been quite 
helpful in assessing Beryl's structure and intensity. Within the 
past hour, the aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 
157 kt in the northeastern quadrant. A typical 90 percent reduction 
translates to a maximum sustained wind of 140 kt, which makes Beryl 
a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. This is the 
earliest Category 5 hurricane observed in the Atlantic basin on 
record, and only the second Category 5 hurricane to occur in July 
after Hurricane Emily in 2005.

Beryl continues to move quickly to the west-northwest, even a bit 
faster than earlier, estimated from plane fixes to be 290/19 kt. A 
well-established subtropical ridge oriented ESE-to-WNW of Beryl is 
expected to continue to steer the small but potent hurricane quickly 
west-northwestward into the central Caribbean over the next several 
days. After 48 hours, the strongest ridging becomes positioned more 
NW of Beryl, and the storm could turn a bit more westward and 
gradually slow down when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean. The 
guidance this cycle has nudged a bit further north this cycle, and 
thus the NHC forecast track has also been shifted in that direction, 
roughly between the reliable HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. After 72 
hours, model track spread increases quite markedly, especially after 
Beryl emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, and forecast confidence in 
the track at the end of the forecast is rather low.

While I cannot rule out a bit more intensification in the 
short-term, dropsonde pressure observations between fixes in Beryl's 
eye have remained steady at 938 mb. It is also possible another 
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) could begin like we saw last night, 
with UW-CIMSS MPERC model giving another ERC a 50-75 percent 
probability based on the last few microwave passes. With that said, 
after the next 24 hours, both the GFS and ECMWF remain insistent 
that significant mid-level westerly shear (above 30 kt) will begin 
to undercut Beryl's outflow layer. The HAFS-A/B regional-hurricane 
models, which did a good job predicting Beryl's peak intensity 
today, are also insistent this shear will start to disrupt the 
hurricane after the next 24 hours. There is evidence of this less 
favorable upper-level pattern on GOES-16 water vapor imagery upwind 
of Beryl's track, and thus a faster rate of weakening is forecasted 
from 36-72 hours. There remains much uncertainty of what Beryl's 
structure or intensity will be as it approaches or crosses the 
Yucatan, but the current GFS and ECMWF upper-level pattern in the 
Gulf of Mexico does not look especially favorable for 
restrengthening at the end of the forecast period. 

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves 
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is now 
in effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on 
Wednesday.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south 
coast of Hispaniola.

2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible over portions of 
Jamaica on Wednesday.

3. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula,
the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean, and the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required on Tuesday or
Wednesday.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 13.8N  64.9W  140 KT 160 MPH
12H  02/1200Z 14.8N  67.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
24H  03/0000Z 15.9N  71.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  03/1200Z 16.8N  75.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  04/0000Z 17.7N  78.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  04/1200Z 18.2N  82.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  05/0000Z 18.6N  85.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  06/0000Z 20.5N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  07/0000Z 22.5N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin