Hurricane Kirk Special Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
800 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Kirk is undergoing rapid intensification this evening.  
Geostationary satellite imagery has shown an eye clearing and Dvorak 
estimates are rising as quickly as they are allowed.  The initial 
intensity is set to a possibly conservative 105 kt, closest to the 
final-T number (T5.5) from TAFB.  The intensity forecast has been 
increased between 12 through 48 h.  No changes were made to the 
intensity forecast beyond 60 h, or the track and wind radii 
predictions.  The next forecast will be released at the normally 
scheduled time (11 PM AST).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0000Z 19.3N  44.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  03/0600Z 19.9N  45.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  03/1800Z 21.1N  46.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  04/0600Z 22.4N  48.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
48H  04/1800Z 23.8N  49.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
60H  05/0600Z 25.7N  50.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  05/1800Z 28.5N  50.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  06/1800Z 35.1N  47.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 42.5N  38.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi