Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon depicts increasing bursts
of convection just east and especially just north of the
generally exposed low-level center of Joyce. This precludes
downgrading Joyce to a post-tropical remnant low with this
advisory, though that could happen as early as tonight if the burst 
does not organize. The intensity of the depression was held at 30 kt 
for this advisory based on continuity.

Joyce has moved very little over the past 12 to 24 hours, but the
current motion estimate was held at an uncertain 360/2 kt. The
official forecast track shows a slow northward motion until Joyce
fully dissipates within 48 h, with little change from the previous
track forecast.

Continued deep-layer shear and dry air encompassing Joyce
is forecast to inhibit additional convection and lead to the
cyclone becoming a remnant low soon. The intensity forecast remains
unchanged from the previous one, showing Joyce becoming a remnant
low in 12 h with dissipation in about 48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 22.7N  48.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  01/0600Z 23.4N  48.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  01/1800Z 24.8N  48.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  02/0600Z 26.5N  48.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Blake