Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
500 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

Over the past couple of hours, the center of Gordon had been 
exposed to the west of the convective canopy. However, there have 
been recent bursts of convection closer to the center of the storm 
and the overall satellite presentation of the system has improved. 
The environment surrounding Gordon is still unfavorable, with 
moderate westerly vertical wind shear and a dry stable airmass 
continuing to have some impact on the cyclone. Gordon is likely in 
somewhat of a steady state, and the initial intensity remains 40 kt 
for this advisory. This agrees with the subjective and objective 
intensity estimates. 

The tropical storm is forecast to weaken to a depression on Sunday, 
as it continues to experience moderate shear and a drier and more 
stable airmass. Model guidance has trended weaker towards the end of 
the period and the intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement 
with the HCCA corrected consensus aids. Global models have continued 
to trend towards Gordon struggling to produce convection, and it is 
possible Gordon may degenerate into a remnant low or surface trough 
by the middle of the forecast period. The current forecast keeps 
Gordon as a tropical cyclone through the period, although this could 
be generous and subsequent changes may be needed in future 
advisories.

Gordon is tracking westward at 270/9 kt, and a gradual turn toward 
the west-southwest with a slower forward speed is forecast over the 
next couple of days, in agreement with the latest track guidance. A 
shortwave trough approaching from the northwest of Gordon will open 
a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge and allow the tropical 
cyclone to turn slowly northward. The new track forecast is nearly 
the same as the previous forecast, except with a slightly slower 
forward motion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 20.3N  42.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  15/0600Z 20.1N  44.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  15/1800Z 20.0N  45.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  16/0600Z 19.9N  47.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  16/1800Z 19.8N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  17/0600Z 19.8N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  17/1800Z 19.9N  50.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  18/1800Z 20.6N  51.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 21.6N  51.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney