Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Francine made landfall in Terrebonne Parish in southern Louisiana
around 5 pm CDT (2200 UTC) as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum winds
at landfall were estimated to be around 85 kt based on data
collected by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters.  Since then, Francine
has been rapidly weakening, and the maximum winds are now estimated
to be near 60 kt, making it a tropical storm.  The convective
pattern has become quite asymmetric with nearly all of the heavy
rains confined to the north of the center.  Some of the heaviest
rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds are occurring in
metropolitan New Orleans, where there have been gusts to near 60 kt.

The storm continues to move northeastward at a relatively quick 14
kt.  However, a slow down is expected as the system weakens and
merges with a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest, which
could cause flooding over portions of the southern U.S.  As Francine
continues inland, the storm will spin down and likely become a
tropical depression by late Thursday and a post-tropical cyclone
Thursday night or early Friday.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge during the
next several hours for portions of the Louisiana and Mississippi
coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.
Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice
given by local officials.

2. Damaging winds are expected to continue in portions of southern
Louisiana overnight. Remain in a safe location until conditions
improve.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding,
across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama,
and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban
flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower
Mississippi Valley into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 30.2N  90.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
12H  12/1200Z 32.0N  89.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
24H  13/0000Z 34.4N  89.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
36H  13/1200Z 35.4N  90.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  14/0000Z 35.9N  90.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi