Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

This afternoon, Kirk has the appearance of an intensifying 
hurricane. While the eye still remains obscured on visible satellite 
imagery, an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 1604 UTC showed the 
inner-core continues to improve, with a notable cyan ring on the 37 
GHz channel. This signal is often a harbinger of more substantial 
intensification. While the subjective Dvorak estimates remain 
unchanged from this morning, the improvement of the storm structure 
on microwave imagery suggests intensification has continued, and the 
initial intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory. 

The hurricane has maintained its motion throughout the day, still 
northwestward at 310/10 kt. There is not a lot of new information to 
report about the track philosophy, with Kirk expected to round the 
western edge of the subtropical ridge that has been its primary 
steering mechanism over the last few days. This ridge is forecast to 
become eroded by a deep-layer trough approaching from the west, and 
Kirk will ultimately track in between these two features, beginning 
to accelerate as the tropical cyclone recurves into the higher 
latitudes. The track guidance remains in good agreement with 
lower-than-average spread on the forecast track, and the NHC track 
is very similar to the prior advisory and is quite close to both the 
ECMWF, GFS, and consensus aid track solutions. 

All systems appear go for Kirk to intensify significantly over the 
next couple of days, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the 
hurricane intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48 h, in good 
agreement with the hurricane-regional model guidance. Thereafter, 
inner-core fluctuations plus increasing southwesterly shear from the 
upper-level trough to its west is expected to cause gradual 
weakening, as  shown in the NHC forecast after that time. Kirk is 
also expected to continue growing in size through the forecast 
period. By the end of the forecast, Kirk should begin extratropical 
transition in the high-latitudes, likely to be completed just 
beyond day 5. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 18.9N  44.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  03/0600Z 19.9N  45.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  03/1800Z 21.1N  46.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  04/0600Z 22.4N  48.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  04/1800Z 23.8N  49.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
60H  05/0600Z 25.7N  50.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  05/1800Z 28.5N  50.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  06/1800Z 35.1N  47.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 42.5N  38.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin