Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Beryl has maintained a very impressive satellite appearance this 
afternoon. The well-defined, symmetric eye is surrounded by a ring 
of infrared cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. The central pressure 
of the hurricane was falling throughout the day while the Hurricane 
Hunters sampled the storm, with the last aircraft pass showing the 
central pressure had fallen to around 946 mb. The latest objective 
(ADT/AiDT) and subjective (TAFB/SAB) satellite intensity estimates 
still support an intensity between 125 to 130 kt, which lies in 
between the earlier reduced flight-level winds and SFMR retrievals 
from the aircraft. Thus, the initial intensity of Beryl is held at 
130 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward   
(290/18-kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge over the 
western Atlantic. A fast west-northwestward to westward motion is 
expected over the next several days, bringing the center of the 
hurricane across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. The 
latest track guidance has shifted a bit northward this cycle, with 
some global models including the GFS and ECMWF showing a closer 
approach to Hispaniola and Jamaica by midweek. The latest NHC track 
forecast was adjusted in this direction, although it still lies 
slightly to the south of the TVCA and HCCA aids. The official 
prediction still shows Beryl emerging into the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico as a tropical storm at day 5, but the track uncertainty is 
greater with more ensemble spread during this period.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl again 
this evening. While some intensity fluctuations are possible in the 
near term, the official NHC forecast shows little intensity change 
through tonight. An increase in mid-level westerly shear is still 
forecast by midweek, and this should cause some weakening while 
Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. 
However, Beryl is still forecast to remain a hurricane as it 
approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest NHC intensity 
prediction remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Once 
again, there is increased uncertainty later in the forecast period 
regarding the extent of land interaction and vertical depth of the 
cyclone once it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and emerges into the 
southwestern Gulf.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, dangerous waves, and heavy rainfall 
are expected to continue through this evening while the core of 
Beryl pulls away from the southern Windward Islands.

2. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves 
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Warning 
has been issued for the south coast of Hispaniola. Hurricane 
conditions are possible in Jamaica on Wednesday, where a Hurricane 
Watch is in effect.  

3. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, 
the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean, and the southwestern 
Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional 
watches and warnings will likely be required during the next day or 
two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 13.2N  63.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
12H  02/0600Z 14.1N  66.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
24H  02/1800Z 15.4N  69.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  03/0600Z 16.3N  73.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  03/1800Z 17.1N  77.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  04/0600Z 17.9N  80.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  04/1800Z 18.3N  84.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  05/1800Z 19.5N  90.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
120H  06/1800Z 21.0N  94.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Reinhart