Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Leslie this 
morning. Some of the latest satellite images depict a little bit of 
shear starting to impact the system, with a sharper convective edge 
on the western side. Subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates range from 65 to 75 kt.  Using a blend of these estimates, 
the initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory.

Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (295/6 kt), 
steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. 
The ridge will continue to steer Leslie the next several days with a 
turn more northwestward, with an increase in forward speed by the 
middle of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very close 
to the previous, and lies near the simple and corrected consensus 
aids.

The intensity forecast continues to trend downward with Leslie. The 
system has about 12-24 hours left within a favorable environment 
where some slight additional strengthening may occur. By Sunday, 
increased shear, drier mid-level, and the track taking Leslie over 
Kirk's cold wake, this could cause some weakening after 24 hours. 
There is better agreement with the weakening trend, however they 
differ on how significantly and how quickly weakening will occur. 
Therefore, downward adjustments were made to the NHC intensity 
forecast and now has Leslie weakening below hurricane strength 
beyond 48 h.  If trends continue further downward adjustments may be 
required in future advisories. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 11.1N  35.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  06/0000Z 11.7N  36.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  06/1200Z 12.7N  37.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  07/0000Z 13.8N  38.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  07/1200Z 15.0N  40.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  08/0000Z 16.4N  42.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  08/1200Z 17.8N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  09/1200Z 20.4N  47.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 22.4N  50.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly