Hurricane Milton Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been 
investigating Milton.  Earlier, the Hurricane Hunters found that the 
minimum central pressure in the eye had dropped to an estimated 897 
mb. Based on this, Milton had the fifth lowest central pressure in 
the Atlantic basin hurricane record.  Subsequent center penetrations 
by the aircraft indicated somewhat higher central pressures.  Also, 
flight-level and dropsonde data from the aircraft suggested some 
decrease in intensity, and the advisory intensity is set to 145 kt. 
The decrease is likely the result of an eyewall replacement reported 
by the Hurricane Hunters, leading to a double wind maximum radially 
from the center.  Notwithstanding, Milton still remains an extremely 
dangerous Category 5 hurricane.

The initial motion is eastward, or 090/8 kt.  Milton should continue 
to pass close to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight 
and early Tuesday.  Then, the flow on the eastern side of a 
mid-tropospheric shortwave trough dropping into the northwestern 
Gulf of Mexico should cause Milton to move east-northeastward to 
northeastward at a faster forward speed later on Tuesday and 
Wednesday.  This motion should take the system across the Florida 
peninsula on Thursday.  Later in the forecast period, Milton is 
expected to move east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic 
waters off the southeast U.S. coast while gradually losing tropical 
characteristics.  The official track forecast is close to, but a 
little faster than, the model consensus.  This is also very similar 
to the previous NHC forecast.  As noted earlier, the track is closer 
to the model predicted fields rather than the model trackers which 
appear to be too far south.

So long as Milton remains in an environment of light shear and over 
very high oceanic heat content, its maximum intensity should be 
governed more by inner-core fluctuations.  However the SHIPS 
diagnostics indicate a significant increase in vertical wind shear 
within 24 hours, likely associated with increasing southwesterly 
upper-level flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Therefore a 
decrease in intensity is predicted before Milton reaches the western 
coast of the Florida Peninsula.  Regardless of the peak intensity, 
the eyewall replacement cycle will likely lead to an expansion of 
the destructive inner core of the hurricane during the next day or 
two.  The system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at 
landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline 
and well inland.  Residents in Florida should closely follow the 
orders from their local emergency management officials, as Milton 
has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on 
record for west-central Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.  This is an
extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas
should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate
immediately if told to do so.

3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along
portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is
in effect.  Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses
the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion
of the entire Florida Peninsula.  Preparations to protect life and
property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night
since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this
area early Wednesday.

4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of
Florida well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected Tuesday night through early Thursday.
This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.
Flooding will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland
flooding combine to increase the overall threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 21.8N  89.9W  145 KT 165 MPH
12H  08/1200Z 22.3N  88.6W  145 KT 165 MPH
24H  09/0000Z 23.5N  86.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
36H  09/1200Z 25.0N  84.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
48H  10/0000Z 27.1N  83.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
60H  10/1200Z 28.6N  80.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
72H  11/0000Z 29.4N  77.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...OVER WATER
96H  12/0000Z 30.3N  69.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0000Z 31.0N  63.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch