Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Kirk continues to intensify this morning. On geostationary satellite 
imagery convective bands continue to rotate around the eye seen 
earlier in microwave imagery, although this feature hasn't shown up 
yet on visible imagery. The subjective Dvorak estimates were a 
consensus T4.5/77 kt, and blending these estimates with somewhat 
lower objective intensity estimates, the intensity has been raised 
to 75 kt this advisory.

Kirk continues moving northwestward, or 305/10 kt. A gradual 
slowdown at a similar heading is expected over the next day or two 
as the hurricane remains steered by a subtropical ridge centered to 
its northeast. At the end of the week, Kirk will find itself between 
an increasingly eroded ridge to its east, and a digging upper-level 
trough to its west, and it is likely Kirk will be steered between 
these features, recurving northward, and then north-northeastward by 
the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is 
very similar to the prior one, especially over the next several 
days, but is a little further northwest thereafter, blending the 
prior track forecast to the consensus aids TCVA and HCCA, though in 
general the track spread among the track guidance remains relatively 
low. 

Kirk appears poised to intensify quite a bit in the short-term now 
that shear has decreased as the hurricane remains over very warm 
ocean waters and plenty of deep-layer moisture. These favorable 
conditions should promote notable strengthening, and the latest NHC 
intensity forecast now shows Kirk becoming a major hurricane in 24 
h, and peaking as a 115 kt Category 4 hurricane in 48 h. Thereafter, 
southwesterly shear from the upper-level trough to its west could 
begin to increase, leading to a gradual weakening trend. The latest 
intensity forecast is a little higher than earlier, owing to 
somewhat higher intensity guidance aids this cycle, but still 
remains lower than some of the more bullish guidance (HAFS-B) but is 
roughly in line with HCCA this cycle. Kirk is also expected to 
continue growing in size with a larger than average radius of both 
tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii as it recurves into 
the open Atlantic Ocean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 18.0N  43.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 19.0N  44.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 20.2N  45.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 21.3N  47.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  04/1200Z 22.7N  48.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
60H  05/0000Z 24.4N  49.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
72H  05/1200Z 26.7N  50.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
96H  06/1200Z 32.7N  49.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 39.6N  42.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin