Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

A 0552 UTC SSMIS microwave pass showed that Leslie still has a 
well-defined mid-level eye, and deep convection continues to burst 
over the center.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 
T4.0/65 kt, while objective numbers are overall a bit higher than 
that.  Therefore, Leslie's intensity is now estimated to be 70 kt.

Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (290/6 kt), with 
the cyclone still located along the southern periphery of the 
subtropical ridge.  The ridge is expected to remain entrenched and 
strengthen over the eastern Atlantic during the next several days, 
which should cause Leslie to move northwestward and accelerate a 
bit by Tuesday and Wednesday.  The NHC forecast is close to a blend 
of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids, and nearly lies on top of the 
previous prediction.

The intensity forecast is the most challenging part of this 
advisory.  Deep-layer shear is relatively low at the moment and 
should remain so for the next 24 hours or so.  This is the period 
where the NHC forecast shows additional strengthening, and is close 
to the statistical-dynamical models near the top end of the 
guidance.  Increased shear, combined with Leslie potentially moving 
over Kirk's cold wake, could cause some weakening after 24 hours.  
All of the intensity models support this scenario, however they 
differ significantly in how much weakening will occur.  The NHC 
forecast continues to show Leslie maintaining hurricane status 
through day 5, mainly following the SHIPS model.  However, the IVCN 
and HCCA consensus aids, as well as several of the hurricane 
regional models, suggest that Leslie could weaken below hurricane 
intensity by 48 hours.  Downward adjustments to the intensity 
forecast may be required in future advisories if this trend 
continues.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 10.7N  34.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  05/1800Z 11.2N  35.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  06/0600Z 12.1N  36.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  06/1800Z 13.2N  38.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  07/0600Z 14.6N  39.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  07/1800Z 15.9N  41.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  08/0600Z 17.4N  43.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  09/0600Z 20.2N  46.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 22.3N  49.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg