Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Leslie (AL132024) DATA RELEASED: 10/5/2024 3:00:00 AM UTC

Copy of official data

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

Leslie continues to become better organized this evening.  An SSMIS 
microwave pass from 1946 UTC showed that Leslie had a small inner 
core with a well-defined mid-level center.  Subjective satellite 
intensity guidance has held steady while objective guidance has 
increased significantly, creating a wide range of possible 
intensities (56-84 kt).  For this advisory, the maximum sustained 
winds have been increased to 65 kt, which is closest to the SAB T4.0 
classification.  Leslie is the eighth hurricane in the Atlantic this 
season.

A subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean is steering the 
hurricane slowly to the west-northwest at 290/6 kt.  There has been 
no changes to the track reasoning.  The ridge should be the dominant 
steering feature through the entire forecast period, turning Leslie 
northwestward by Saturday and continue this motion through the 
middle of next week.  Only minor updates were made to the latest NHC 
track forecast.

Based on the UW-CIMSS satellite wind analysis, Leslie is on the edge 
of a shear gradient, with the core in an area of moderate-to-weak 
vertical wind shear.  Global models suggest environmental conditions 
will be conducive for about a day and half before the shear begins 
to increase and Leslie moves into a drier airmass.  These conditions 
should induce gradual weakening.  There is still a large spread in 
the intensity guidance envelope, which seems related to the strength 
of the vertical wind shear Leslie could encounter.  Overall, the 
guidance has once shifted downward this cycle, and the NHC intensity 
forecast has been lowered at 60 h and beyond.  The forecast still 
lies at the high end of the intensity aids and additional 
adjustments may be needed in later advisories. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 10.4N  34.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  05/1200Z 10.8N  35.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  06/0000Z 11.6N  36.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  06/1200Z 12.7N  37.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  07/0000Z 14.1N  38.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
60H  07/1200Z 15.4N  40.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  08/0000Z 16.9N  42.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  09/0000Z 19.5N  45.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 21.8N  48.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci