Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Satellite imagery over the past 6 to 12 hours indicates a gradual 
improvement in the organization of Kirk's central dense overcast.  
The low-level center is likely underneath the southern portion of 
the central convective area.  The cyclone is also growing in size.  
Convective banding in the southeast semicircle sprawls out a far 
distance away from the center.  The latest subjective intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 65 to 77 kt, while objective 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are ranging from 61 to 71 kt.  
The initial intensity is nudged up to 70 kt based on an average of 
the subjective estimates.

Kirk has been moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt.  A similar 
heading at perhaps a slightly slower forward speed is expected 
through Thursday as Kirk is steered by a subtropical ridge.  By the 
end of the week, Kirk will gradually turn northward in between an 
approaching deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a 
subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane.  A turn toward the 
north-northeast is expected by the end of the weekend, and the 
models remain in good agreement on this scenario.  The new NHC 
track forecast is nearly unchanged from the previous one through 72 
h, but a bit west of the previous forecast beyond 72 h.  The NHC 
forecast is in best agreement with the TVCA consensus aid.

Favorable environmental conditions are forecast to continue for the 
next 60 to 72 hours as Kirk travels over warm sea-surface 
temperatures and within a relatively moist environment with weak 
deep-layer vertical wind shear.  These favorable conditions should 
allow for continued steady strengthening, and Kirk is forecast to 
become a major hurricane on Thursday.  By hour 96, Kirk is likely 
to experience stronger southwesterly wind shear, which should begin 
a weakening trend.  The latest intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous one and lies in the middle to upper portion of the 
guidance envelope.  Kirk is a large tropical cyclone and is expected
to grow into a very large and powerful major hurricane over the 
next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 17.5N  42.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  02/1800Z 18.4N  43.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
24H  03/0600Z 19.5N  44.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  03/1800Z 20.7N  46.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  04/0600Z 21.9N  47.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
60H  04/1800Z 23.4N  49.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  05/0600Z 25.3N  50.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
96H  06/0600Z 30.8N  50.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 37.4N  44.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen