Hurricane Milton Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Satellite images indicate that Milton is quite a powerful hurricane.
The small eye has become even more distinct than earlier today, and
radar data from Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with a very 
strong eyewall presentation.  On the last fix before the plane
departed a few hours ago, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter crew
reported that the pressure had fallen to 911 mb, which is 77 mb
lower than yesterday at the same time, with other data to support
150 kt.  Since the satellite imagery continues to show
intensification, the initial wind speed is set to 155 kt, and a pair
of Hurricane Hunters should be in the area this evening for more 
information.

The hurricane is moving eastward at about 9 kt.  Milton should move 
close to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early 
Tuesday ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern 
Gulf of Mexico.  This feature should then cause Milton to move 
east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed 
later on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Little change was made to the 
previous forecast, with the latest model guidance very close to the 
previous forecast cycle, and this forecast remains close to a 
consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models. 
Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the 
model trackers which appear to be too far south.

Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and 
very warm waters providing a conducive environment.  However, radar 
data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall 
replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer 
eyewall.  The evolution will likely cause the system to gradually 
weaken on Tuesday but grow larger.  On Wednesday, Milton is expected 
to encounter a less favorable environment with strong shear and dry 
air entrainment, with further weakening forecast.  Regardless, the 
system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall 
in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well 
inland.  Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from 
their local emergency management officials, as Milton has the 
potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record 
for west-central Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge 
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern 
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.   

2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely 
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on 
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along 
parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.  This is an 
extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas 
should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate 
immediately if told to do so.

3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along 
portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is 
in effect.  Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses 
the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, 
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion 
of the entire Florida Peninsula.  Preparations to protect life and 
property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night 
since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this 
area early Wednesday. 

4. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today 
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to 
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This 
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal 
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river 
flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 21.8N  90.8W  155 KT 180 MPH
12H  08/0600Z 21.9N  89.4W  160 KT 185 MPH
24H  08/1800Z 22.7N  87.4W  150 KT 175 MPH
36H  09/0600Z 24.2N  85.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
48H  09/1800Z 26.1N  84.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
60H  10/0600Z 27.9N  82.6W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
72H  10/1800Z 29.2N  79.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...OVER WATER
96H  11/1800Z 30.5N  71.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/1800Z 31.0N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake