Official Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center

Gordon (AL072024) DATA RELEASED: 9/13/2024 9:00:00 PM UTC

Copy of official data

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

Gordon continues to produce a convective canopy of cold cloud 
tops near -75 C mainly to the east of the center, due to some 
moderate westerly wind shear. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass 
depicted some banding features forming as well. Subjective and 
objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have remained  steady 
around 35 kt. Thus, the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm continues to deal with some westerly wind shear 
and has about 18 hours before encountering a drier airmass across 
the central tropical Atlantic. So the current forecast shows the 
potential for some slight strengthening before the unfavorable 
airmass. Models depict that the cyclones wind field will weaken and 
the system is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression. Simulated 
satellite depicts that the cyclone will struggle convectively 
through the middle part of the period and there is a chance that 
Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the official 
forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire 
forecast period. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the 
system reaches a slightly more moist, unstable and low-shear 
environment.

Gordon is moving slightly slower toward the west-northwest at 290/9 
kt. The system is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge 
which will cause the system to slow its forward speed and turn more 
westward by tonight. This slow westward to west-southwestward motion 
will continue through much of the forecast period. An amplified 
trough is forecast to move to the north of Gordon towards the end of 
the period which could cause a turn toward the northwest and 
northward by the end of the period. However, there is quite a spread 
in the model guidance towards the end of the period due to the 
differences in intensity and if Gordon is able to regain strength 
toward the end of the period. The latest NHC forecast track is 
slightly to the left of the previous and near the simple consensus 
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 19.5N  39.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  14/0600Z 19.8N  40.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  14/1800Z 19.7N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  15/0600Z 19.5N  44.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  15/1800Z 19.4N  45.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  16/0600Z 19.3N  46.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  16/1800Z 19.3N  47.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  17/1800Z 19.9N  49.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 20.8N  49.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly