Hurricane Milton Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing.  Satellite
images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover,
and the eye is becoming better defined.  Data from the Mexican 
radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall
presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak 
flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the 
pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in 
4 hours.  The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an 
80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix 
2007 in our records).

The hurricane is still moving east-southeastward, now about 8 kt.
Global models continue to insist that Milton will turn eastward
soon as the frontal low pressure area over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico departs.  The new forecast near Mexico is about the same as 
the previous one, but is close enough to bring hurricane-force 
winds to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula.  Later, a new 
mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico 
should then cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward 
at a faster forward speed.  The latest model fields are a bit left 
of the previous runs, and the official NHC track forecast is shifted 
to the north.  This forecast is close to a consensus of the latest 
GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models. Note that this track is 
closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which 
appear to be too far south. 

Milton is likely to become a category 5 hurricane later today
with light shear and very warm waters in its path. By tomorrow,
its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement
cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken 
but grow larger.  After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a 
much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air 
entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the 
hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast.  However, the system is 
still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in 
Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well 
inland. After landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical
transition, which should be complete by 96 h.  

Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.  A life-threatening
storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should
follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to
do so.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 21.7N  91.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
12H  08/0000Z 21.5N  90.4W  145 KT 165 MPH
24H  08/1200Z 22.2N  88.3W  140 KT 160 MPH
36H  09/0000Z 23.6N  86.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
48H  09/1200Z 25.5N  84.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
60H  10/0000Z 27.7N  82.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  10/1200Z 29.2N  80.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  11/1200Z 30.8N  71.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/1200Z 31.0N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake